Chapter 7 Conclusion

In this analysis, we explore the century long storm records [HURDAT2: 1851-2018] (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-1851-2018-120319.txt) to investigate the characteristics of Atlantic storms and hurricanes and examine their changes under global warming conditions. The analysis results indicate that:

1. The Saffir-Simpson scale that is currently widely used to define category of hurricane reflects well the strength of wind and pressure. However, no relationship could be established between the category and size of the cyclones, indicating that a high category hurricane can be of small size and vice versa. Finally, Southern cyclones seem to reach a higher category than Northern cyclones in their lifetime, indicating a relationship between the category and the location. The century long Atlantic storms and hurricanes tracks and features can be easily visualized from Hurricane Shiny App.

2. While recent studies indicate a global North-ward shift in cyclones activity, we did not find strong evidence of this trend in our data. An increase of activity in the North was observed in the 1970s but seemed to decrease in the following decades. Besides, that shift seemed to be due to mostly an increase in frequency of cyclones of category 0 and 1, which are less worrying than cyclones of higher categories.

3. Human activities may have already caused the changes in the Atlantic storm and hurricane activity, reflected by the increasing number of the Atlantic cyclones. However, exploratory analysis can only help us identify similarity in trends and not confirm that one is the cause of the other. In order to do the latter, further research and statistical testing should be performed.